Second Annual Report : August 1997

Appendix 6

Demand / Refinery Capacity Balance

Notes: 1996 Actual refining capacity is based on maximising petrol production and assumes a 92% capacity availability.

Capacity includes synfuel production at 1996 levels. There are currently no announced expansions in productive capacity planned to come on stream at the conventional refineries before the year 2000.

Demand includes sales in South Africa plus sales to Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland and Namibia.

The figures for the year 2000 show the expected range of demand for key petroleum products, and indicate the surplus/shortfalls in low and high demand scenarios (forecasts) against 1996 refining capacity.

1996 Refining Capacity Actual

1996 Demand Actual

1996 Surplus / (Shortfall) Actual

2000 Demand Low growth

2000 Demand High growth

2000 Surplus / (Shortfall) Low growth

2000 Surplus / (Shortfall) High growth

Petrol

12125

11284

841

12700

13716

(575)

(1591)

Diesel

8762

7233

1529

8221

8725

541

37

Kerosene

3321

2711

610

3103

3327

218

(6)